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"How Markets May React to Surprise Republican Election Sweep" by Felice Maranz
Charles Gabriel and Dustin Haygood's Election Risk Report quoted in Felice Maranz's article "How Markets May React to Surprise Republican Election Sweep," published on October 26, 2018.
The article reads:
“Prospects for the Democrats to win both House and Senate have dropped, amid evidence of a late awakening of GOP supporters, an immigration-related October surprise, and effective campaigning by the president,” Capital Alpha’s Charles Gabriel and Dustin Haygood wrote in a note. Their firm puts 35 percent odds on Republicans keeping the House, higher than the 30 percent odds they place on Democrats retaking the Senate.
“For investors, this more-competitive end game should belie any residual ‘black swan’ concerns about higher odds of impeachment attempts aimed at the president in the next Congress, or of consequential efforts to reverse his tax cuts or regulatory agenda,” Gabriel and Haygood wrote. Even so, they say a split decision, with a Democratic House and Republican Senate, “has been expected from the start, and will prove true.”