Macro - Charles Gabriel

Congress: Omnibus Details Expected Today; Passage/Adjournment By Weekend
After weeks of closely-held negotiations between party leaders and appropriators, a final FY16 spending bill should surface this morning, allowing a House vote before the current CR runs out on Wednesday (Dec 16).

Congress: Guessing Game Over Policy Riders About To End
In or out with this morning's reveal could be add-ons ranging from a delay of DOL's fiduciary duty rules, and green-lighted crude exports, to new Fannie-Freddie shackles and regional bank SIFI relief.

Fiscal/Monetary/Elections: Endings To Symbolic Eras Seen In Sight
With the Fed to end NZIRP at its Dec 15-16 FOMC meeting, and Tuesday's GOP presidential debate foretelling the end of the Obama era in just 13 months, there are ample signs marking the end of Tea Party-led austerity.
 

Health Care - Kim Monk & Rob Smith

Down to the Wire on ACA Tax Relief
ACA Cadillac, medtech, and health insurance tax delays likely depend on if a big tax deal is reached within the next day. No deal likely means scaled-down measure sans ACA provisions, despite the Reid push for Caddy tax delay.

Hospital Site-Neutral Fix A Sticking Point in Omnibus Negotiation
The BBA’s site-neutrality provisions bar hospitals from buying physician practices to receive higher hospital rates for the same services. Hospitals seek an exemption for deals in progress when the law passed.

CMS/Treasury Release Guidance on Sec. 1332 State Innovation Waivers
Beginning in 2017 states could opt out of certain ACA mandates and pursue alternative reforms per the waivers, so long as certain coverage goals are met. The program could be a catalyst for ACA reform in a GOP Administration.

Turing’s Shkreli Continues to Stoke Drug Pricing Flames
Company plans to boost prices for a South American-approved Chagas drug from ~$50/course to ~$60-100k and to seek to achieve a rare disease FDA voucher helps assure drug pricing will remain in the crosshairs.  

Senate Finance Chronic Care Package Expected This Week
The package will include a grab bag of health care issues that could prove marginally positive, but the committee's intention to keep it no to low cost will likely limit investor implications.

Republicans Criticize CMS Oversight of State-Based Exchanges
CMS is cracking down on the misuse of federal dollars in state-based exchanges, taking back $200 million in improperly used ACA awards, but Republicans remain critical of CMS’s hands-off approach.


Energy - James Lucier

Crude Oil Exports and Renewable Tax: The Monday Moment of Truth
We are counting down to the big reveal on crude oil exports and renewable energy tax breaks.  We are looking for a Monday “Moment of Truth” linked to the morning news cycle.

Watching for HAL/BHI News as Timing Agreement Expires
A DoJ agreement with HAL/BHI expires Dec 15, but there's no deadline for a decision until Jan. 12 at the EU. If negotiations are unresolved Tues, the deadline could be extended. We think the deal goes through in Jan.

FERC’s Thursday Meeting Could Bring Incentive Decisions
The meeting could bring more clarity on incentive rate policy, as the agenda features several pending dockets containing rate filings seeking various incentive rate treatments for different transmission projects.

FERC Meeting Completes Oil Pipeline Rate Indexing Review
FERC is set to complete a regular five-year review of the the indexing methodology used for computing permissible annual oil pipeline rate changes in an order expected from their Thursday meeting.
 

Multi-Industry - Loren Smith

Could EPA Water Rules See Tweaks in Omnibus?
Congressional leaders are likely to wrap up work this week on an omnibus spending deal for Fiscal Year 2016. We have consistently been skeptical on a repeal of Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rules, but tweaks could happen.

New Truck Fuel Efficiency Standards Likely Soon
The last round of major fuel efficiency mandates from the Obama administration will be finalized within the next few months for trucks. The rules may be eased over time, but compliance costs will be significant.

FAA Reauthorization Waiting on Air Traffic Control Resolution
Transportation policymakers seem close on an agreement to reauthorize the FAA, but seem to not have yet ironed out air traffic control reforms. That move won’t be announced before January, but a deal by March 31 seems likely.
 

Telecom & Media - Robert Kaminski

What Are We Still Waiting For In 2015?
There is little that is investable in the FCC's monthly open meeting Thursday, but there are still several pending items we thought would get done by now.
 

Financials - Charles Gabriel

Banks: Fill Or Kill Time for Regional SIFI Relief
Still a prospect, but now a surprise were it to emerge, would be an omnibus add-on raising the Dodd Frank Act's $50 billion threshold for banks' designation as systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs).

Mortgages: GSE Jumpstart Curbs May Be Biggest Omnibus Surprise
Reportedly under consideration could also be a two-year version of Sen. Corker's proposed curbs on Treasury's sale of its preferred stock in Fannie and Freddie, along with a ban on use of G-fees for non-housing-related purposes.

Credit Scores: Effort To Force Competition For Fair Isaac Accelerates
We see good prospects for a Royce (R-CA)-Sewell (D-AL) bill tasking Fannie and Freddie to allow developers to apply for validation and approval of credit score models used for underwriting residential mortgages.
 

Defense - Byron Callan

Some Thoughts on Trump and Defense
We don't expect Donald Trump will be the next President. However we have some thoughts regarding defense if we are wrong.

Encryption as a Way to Deal with Data Security
Data encryption is a key cyber defense, but its use is being debated in the wake of the Paris and San Bernardino attacks.

Russian Military Sales and Product Demonstrations in Syria
Gulf states don't have much capacity for land and special forces despite a recent admonishment by the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that they invest in these capabilities.

Defense Week Ahead
Dec 17 GAO decision on JLTV protest. CNAS Dec 14 National Security Forum. Washington Space Roundtable Dec 15 event. CSIS Dec 15: "Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure" & Dec 16: "Unmanned Systems in Homeland Security"
 

Contact Rich Linville, Tom Butler, Courtney Oldham or Mike Giordano for more information.